NFL: Minnesota Vikings ML

[Orbital]

Nu..neni to nijak silny tip, ale pokud chcete dnes vecer akci...
Jak bylo receno, americky sporty jsou loterie. Jde o to kdy je trochu vychylena na nasi stranu.

New England i Minnesota predvadeji velmi dobre vykony (zapocteme-li preseason je to jeste vic ve prospech Minnesoty). New England samozrejme papirove lepsi, Minnesota ovsem doma. Verejnost je pravdepodobne s venku neporazenymi NEP a proto ta vychylka na ML, kde je Minnesota 2.09 (pinnacle - na burze bude mozna jeste o neco lepe). O par setin je tahle loterie v nas prospech. Hratelny je tez +2 se standardem -110. Samozrejme pokud mate ucet u extremnich rekreacnich sazkovek jako je SportsInteraction, tak +2.5 za 2.00 (ML maji 2.15) .... to je vylozene okradani sazkovky , fer kurz pro +2.5 je hluboce pod 1.9.

GL tonight<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[tron]

... a tak to jdeme dnes proti sobe ,k tomuto zapasu jsem sice necetl zadny analyzky ,ale jen tak mezi zpravickami jsem videl ze mozna nebude hrat BRADY (hostujici QB) a proto mozna ten zkreslenej kurz.
Podle me nastoupi nebo bude minimalne alternovat a hostujici Patrioti v klidu zvitezi , tento nazor podporuji i stats ..... HCP -1 je spise symbolicky tak proc ho nezkusit.
Jedine co me trochu znepokojuje je fakt ,ze Vikingove dokazi porazet i lepsi tymy(nebo s nimi hrat min vyrovnanou hru ...) a s horsimi se trapi a dokazi i prekvapive prohrat ,proto bych se vyhnul vysokym sazkam .. takze spis stred,aby bylo na co koukat

P.S. uvazoval jsem o UNDERU s ohledem na obranu NE ,ale hranice 38.5-40 me nechala chladnym,tady bych chtel hranici alespon 42.5 <div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[Sklipkan]

jen tak mimo... jak to je s tou 2-bodovou konverzi? to muze tym zkusit kdykoliv, nebo jen v nejake specificke situaci? je nejaka statistika, jak casto se to povede, nebo ne? ono to docela ruinuje ty "modely" kdyz clovek vychazi jen z cisel 3 a 7<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[Orbital]

Jsem si cim dal jistejsi touhle sazkou. Verejnost definitivne leje do tohohle zapasu dalsi prachy uvazujic logikou trona. At si Brady nastoupi - jen dostane do brady a bude Konecne jdem proti sobe a po tomhle zapase bude jen jedno ego nafoukly Ledaze NEP vyhrajou o bod....

2pt konversion muzou zkusit vzdy, statistiku nevim. Ale logicky se o to teamy snazi bud aby prave dosahly do te 3/7 pt rady. Tzn. napr kdyz prohravaji o 5 a daji TD... vcera jsme mohli videt uspesnou v zapase Dallas-Carolina kdy Dallas dal za stavu 13-14 TD na 19-14 a jelikoz se blizil konec tak 2pt conv byla logicka (mel sem stesti v livku jak z praku - dal jsem live Dallas +3.5 kdyz byli skoro na hranici red zone za stavu 0-0 a hnedle pote dostali 2TD...no fotbal je dlouhaaaa hra)<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[Orbital]

jak rikam cisla jsou zkreslena verejnosti na kterou delaji NEP dojem...precenovany team...da se to zjistit prave na extremne rekreacnich sazkovkach, ktere maji pekne zkrouhnuty kurz na NEP

tady moji domenku potvrdil jeden moderator na foru s cisly z caribsports (procentualni rozlozeni sazek):

Patriots vs Vikings (Week 8 )(ESPN)

Vikings 28.52%
Patriots 71.48%
34236 Bets

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[Orbital]

Mel bych tady sazku pro tebe trone:
Total game points > 31.5 and < 47.5? kurz 2.12<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[tron]

toto presne sedi,jeste jsem videl sazku na rozdil NE vyhra o 4-7 bodu coz by taky melo klapnout<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[Orbital]

budoucnost je nejista... ale pujdu jeste hloubs...
Jestlize je videt takovy strasny nepomer mezi sazkami verejnosti "sucker bets" a ostatnimi na rekreacnich sazkovkach, je jasny ze to musi nekdo vyvazovat. A ten nekdo kdo vylucovaci metodou zbyva jsou sharps. Proti takovyhle nerovnovaze jdou sharpove s milionama proti (a stejne nemaji sanci to vyvazit).
Co si budem nalhavat - ja ani ty nemame zadny insider info ani nic co se tomu blizi /teda o tobe si nejsem jistej /, ale pokud clovek vidi sharp akci a zaroven slusnej kurz, neni co resit, aspon pro me ne.

jinak na remizu je kurz 101 <div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[Sklipkan]

jak rikam cisla jsou zkreslena verejnosti na kterou delaji NEP dojem...precenovany team...da se to zjistit prave na extremne rekreacnich sazkovkach, ktere maji pekne zkrouhnuty kurz na NEP

tady moji domenku potvrdil jeden moderator na foru s cisly z caribsports (procentualni rozlozeni sazek):

Patriots vs Vikings (Week 8 )(ESPN)

Vikings 28.52%
Patriots 71.48%
34236 Bets

a neni tohle proti te logice profi sazkovek? jak to, ze nabizej vyrovnane kurzy, kdyz trikrat tolik lidi sazi NE? nebo to nejsou objemy sazek, ale jen pocty.. takze to profici vyrovnaj?<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[Orbital]

uz jsem to tu psal...
nejvetsi mytus je ze se sazkovky snazi o balancovanou akci, to neni obecne platny pravidlo..zde jde o rekreacni sazkovky

zaprvy tedy ten kurz samozrejme vychylen trochu je ve prospech me sazky, proto ji sem davam (zadna sazkovka neni 100% rekreacni)

zadruhy pokud uvazujeme situaci 2 vyrovnanych teamu - fer no vig kurzy by byly 2.0 x 2.0:
ale verejnost z nejakyho duvodu sazi na team A... a sazi i na nizsi kurz 1.8 - kurzy jsou dejme tomu 1.8 x 2.25 (no vig).
proc nebrat kurz 1.8 s tim ze 2.25 skoro nikdo nesazi? To je preci strasne vyhodny pokudje pravdepodobnost 1:1. Jasne mohlo by to jit trebas na 1.667 x 2.5 a pak by zacali nabirat na druhou stranu trebas, ale proc nabirat sazky s kurzem 2.5 tam kde je 50% sance? To se jim nevyplati! Staci jen slusnej financni backing, kdy by nahodou vyhraval ten "favorit" nekolikrat za sebou, ale dlohodobe super byznys pro rekreacni sazkovky. Jde jen o to ze verejnost je proste stado.

Dlouho sem nevidel tak ukazkovej pripad sharp x public. Je mi jasny, ze murphyho zakony fungujou a NE je udelaji o 10+ <div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[Orbital]

..tedy zjednodusene receno se situace rekreacnich sazkovek da prirovnat k tomu, kdybys s nekym hazel korunou, na pannu bys bral s kurzem vic nez 2.0 ale on by z neznamyho duvodu porad sazel na pannu. Nicmene by byl strasne bohatej (zhruba jako americka ekonomika), tzn. tvuj jedinej problem by byl, jak velkou sazku mu muzes dovolit, abys, kdyby vyhral, mu mohl love vyplatit.

Sazkovka samozrejme v zajmu zmenseni rizika muze sazku backovat na burzach a predevsim na Pinnacle a urcite to alespon ty mensi delaji, proto i Pinnacle/trzni kurz je vychylen. To ze se kurz drzi tam kde je, tzn. posunuje se ve prospech NEP jen zvolna, je zpusobeny tim ze, sharpove backuji druhou stranu (ale verim ze ani Pinnacle nema balancovanou akci, jenze jeden SHARP vyda na pinnacle za mnoho SQUARES).<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[Orbital]

Tak Brady je doslova zabil
Tezky zivot sazkare.. gratuluji Trone!
Dneska bude u 71.48% USmanu veselo a na rekreacnich sazkovkach relativne smutno. A nejvic to bouchlo Pinnacle. A me <div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[tron]

Tak koukam po ranu ,ze zapas dopadl presne podle predpokladu .Na muj vkus to bylo az moc jednoznacne,proste ONE MAN SHOW ..... vivat BRADY ,tady se musi sunadati kloboucek a vyseknout poradnou poklonu 372y + 4TD tady neni co dodat .Musim se ale opakovat NE potvrdil svoji prislusnost mezi top5 NFL a Minne se vrati do slabsiho prumeru kam zcela zaslousene patri.Minnesota v tomto zapase opet predvedla svoji starou znamou bolest a to promenovani v red zone (kde je vubec jedna z nejhorsich) + kvalitni obrana soupere (kupodivu je nepustili ani k FG ).
Jinak tenhle zapas opet strhl klasickou prestrelku, kde na ruznych forech (i na capperskych servisech,placenych strankach) vyprovokovali nainstalovani typci rady +infa a zarucne insajdy pro tip na domaci,ze zcela pochopitelnych duvodu za ucelem snizeni ztraty.Zvratit tendenci 71 versus 29 se jim mozna podarilo ,ale nas lidi ridicese predevsim svym nazorem VETSINOU nezlomili (a tak to pri sazeni ma byt ... )
Jeste zaverem kratce ORBIMU .... to se mi libi chlape ,kdyz me nekdo hladce vyprovokuje k obhajeni tipu ,tady je potom dvojnasobny duvod k dukladnemu rozboru a dobremu vyberu ... toto asi budeme muset pachat casteji <div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[Orbital]

Jinak tenhle zapas opet strhl klasickou prestrelku, kde na ruznych forech (i na capperskych servisech,placenych strankach) vyprovokovali nainstalovani typci rady +infa a zarucne insajdy pro tip na domaci,ze zcela pochopitelnych duvodu za ucelem snizeni ztraty.

Jen si uzij svych pet minut slavy
A uved zdroje, kteri zaruceni capperi davali tipy na domaci! To by me fakt zajimalo!

Ne ze bych to sledoval, ale tady vidim neco jinyho:
http://www.sportsline.com/nfl/features/ ... pert/picks

Uz sem se pohadal s jednim borcem, proc ne dalsi <div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[Orbital]

sazka na hosty byl sucker bet, jojo... obcas se postesti no.... <div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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