nfl 2015 - preseason

[valentyne]

23.5 over prvni pulka NE - CAR, je to dobry cislo? 3x7 + 1FG - na pokerstars maji kurz 2.05 oproti nejvyssimu podle oddsportal 1.97 na sbobet (PS limit 476$)<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[Orbital]

jo 23.5 je urcite magicky cislo, ten FG na konci 2hy pulky byva obvyklej
do middle s under 24 za 1.83 a lepe to bych hral, pokud to nekdo ma<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[Orbital]

vidim jednu lajnu na pinu mozna vypisou zbytek
ale radsi an to nebudu koukat, jeste bych si vsadil <div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[Orbital]

kdyz uz jsem v tom tak NFC vs AFC winner superbowl
NFC team je -135 a -2.5 (coz je lepsi)
pricemz dva nejvetsi favoriti celkove jsou z NFC SEA +460 a GB +500
za nima je IND a NEP ale velkym odstupem +920 a +995
to vypada na technickou value na mirnym favoritovi NFC to win

jo... pro tradewinda a spol, je to na 5dimes<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[valentyne]

jo 23.5 je urcite magicky cislo, ten FG na konci 2hy pulky byva obvyklej
do middle s under 24 za 1.83 a lepe to bych hral, pokud to nekdo ma

myslel si asi spis konec druhe ctvrtky, ne?<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[Orbital]

jasne sry, fg na konci prvni pulky je mnohem pravdepoodbnejsi nez na konci druhy pulky, kde je ale taky relativne pravdepodobnej, ale tam zalezi jaky je skore, coz na konci prvni pulky nezalezi v 99% vubec (pokud neni blowout cca 28+ bodu a rozdil v nasobku TD, coz byva malokdy)

ale na konci prvni pulky je extremne pravdepodobnej, protoze ty tymy obvykle maji trosku casu na skore, tak nejdou az tak moc za TD, ale chteji do FG range a podrzet balon az dobehne cas a kopnout to
protoze jednak dostat se do FG range je jednodussi a min casove narocny a jednak hlavne je to EV+, protoze nemusi hrat tak riskantne a pokud daji TD a u TD si nemuzou hrat s gameclock, tak nechavaji druhymu tymu sanci skorovat ten jiny FG, takze 7-3=4 oproti jistym 3, kde se ale u toho TD muze stat hodne veci, jako turnover, kde z +7 nebo +4 je razem minimalne -3 nebo -7.
Zvlast kdyz druhej tym ma hodne timeoutu to obvykle konciva FG, protoze i treba 40-25 sekund s 3ma timeoutama je pro ten druhej team nekonecne casu, kde to dokonce muze dopadnout i TD a nejen FG.

myslim ze tohle vypisuje greek neco jako will there be a FG in the last 2 mins of 1st half? Yes 2.7 No 1.5. Nejsem si jistej teda<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[Yuko]

dnes v noci

Redskins +4 za 1.97

RG3 out.
Cousins a McCoy si zahraju dosytosti a ak Flacco nehodi 2TD pokial ho nestiahnu, je mozne ze by klapla aj ML.<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[Orbital]

nemam to nicim podporeny, ale ta ML mozna ma v preseason vetsi value, pokud jsou spready obecne spravne, resp. pokud ma value + spread tak ML underdog by ji mel mit asi vzdy

proste hodnota bodu je jina nez v season myslim, ale bookies ji zachovavaji

tohle by urcite stalo za statistickej pruzkum<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[valentyne]

zkusim PIT ML<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[valentyne]

zajimave kurzy na GB a INDY v pomeru k consensus, dva domaci dogove<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[valentyne]

tak Tom Brady nakonec bude hrat od zacatku, soud zrusil 4zapasovou suspendaci<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[Orbital]

omg, sem cet clanek, ze pro bradyho i pres ten distanc, to bylo dost +EV, protoze se o nem vsude psalo a jeho brand vylezl na cene
tak ted se to vyplatilo rozhodne <div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[valentyne]

jakej smysl ma u am. fotbalu hcp -1/+1?
-1 jedna bych jeste chapal ze strany sazkaru jako vylepseni kurzu na favorita, ale +1, kdyz se zapas po remize prodluzuje?<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[Yuko]

dnes New York Giants ML

prave kvoli Bradymu, resp Garoppolovi a celej tej kauze.<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[Yuko]

jakej smysl ma u am. fotbalu hcp -1/+1?
-1 jedna bych jeste chapal ze strany sazkaru jako vylepseni kurzu na favorita, ale +1, kdyz se zapas po remize prodluzuje?

+1 je sucker bet
viac sa ti oplati dog ML, alebo este lepsie dog -2.5 (ak mas kde)<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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