ropa

[gugatronic3]

Již 48 dolarů za barel: Ceny ropy po zprávě MMF dál klesají | byznys.ihned.cz

kam az tohle muze jit? jsem si rikal 50 je hranice... tohle uz zni jako umele docasne tazeni ceny dolu...<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[Orbital]

Hele tech faktoru je tam hodne. Jelikoz chci tu ropu koupit, tak to ted ctu hodne na tomhle SA treba zde USO - News and Analysis - The United States Oil ETF, LP | Seeking Alpha (ten web je neco jako investorskej huffington post, ty lidi jsou za to i placeny, no clanky mi prijdou o level lepsi nez kecy v novinach)

Kratko a strednedobe jde o nasledujici vec.

1. Tezba ropy ma vysoke fixni naklady. Myslim, zes mel nekde ekonomii, ale proste pokud mas vysoky fixni naklady a nizky variabilni, tj. proste tam uz ten dul/silo stoji (fixni naklad) a platis jen energii a lidi (variablinli), tak se vyplati tezit sakra dlouho, dokud neskonci zivotnost dolu. Kde se projevi nizka cena je na NOVYCH dolech, jejich zavadeni trva leta. A i tam dost nepredvidatelne pac oni nepociatji s cenou ted, ale v budoucnosti, takze budou pri nizkych cenach stavet vzdycky trochu vic novych dolu.

Zatimco bod 1 j asi vsem jasny, tak jsem se docet jeste bod

2.
Jsou ruzny druhy tezby a kazda ma breakeven point pri jine hladine. Breakeven point je cena, pri ktere ten dul vydelava.
No a tady je problem, ze ty druhy tezby co maji nejvyssi breakeven point (frakovani ropy, kanadske pisky), maji zaroven nejvyssi ty fixni naklady a nejnizsi variabilni naklady. Takze paradoxne tam kde je ta tezba ropy celkove nejdrazsi se tezit NEPRESTANE, protoze ty fixni naklady jsou utopene a variabilni to stale pokryva.

Takze se ceka az cena ropy spadne tak nizko, ze to nepokreje naklady tezby tech subodvetvi, kde jsou variablini naklady nejvetsi. Coz je hluboka morska tezba. A tam patrne jeste nejsme.<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[Orbital]

plus je tu druhej faktor proti common sense
a tim je to, ze staty zavisly na exportu ropy, co uz jsou v problemech, zvysuji produkci, protoze si chtji zachovat budget
takovym prikladem je Rusko
a to samozrejme dal tlaci cenu dolu<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[Orbital]

Oil Supply Accelerating - Saudi Arabia Delivering On Its Promise? - The United States Oil ETF, LP (NYSEARCA:USO) | Seeking Alpha

prave se jeste zvysila nabidka ropy<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[gugatronic3]

s ropou moc nesouvisi, ale at nezakladam dalsi vlakno...

Ekonomika na drogách. Buffetův indikátor předpovídá prasknutí bubliny<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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