AO 2012

[Hu™]

Na model, kde se pouze sčítají body z x nejúspěšnějších turnajů, se přešlo v roce 1997. Důvod neznám, ale pravděpodobně za tím stála marketingová snaha WTA získat pro turnaje co nejlepší obsazení a dostat top hráčky na co nejvíc turnajů, čemuž starý model bránil.<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[alkoholik]

trosku od temy:

nechysta sa niekto z Vas buduci tyzden na ATP do Zahrebu ?

Jezdivas casto takhle na naky turnaje? Me by zajimalo na kolik to tak prinde takovy turnaj. Snad ti takova soukromnejsi otazka nebude vadit...

A jinak dik Hu, zes mi objasnil jak to driv bylo stim pocitanim bodu<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[elmagico72]

jj chodievam kolko sa da.. napisem ti postu<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[Hovňous v periodě]

SF
M. Sharapova 2.240
A. Murray 3.060<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[alkoholik]

Jj, Sharapovou si dam urcite taky, kvitova se mi porad nak nezda...<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[Mnězmaimajnázory]

value na sharapovovou bych nevidel, jestli neco umi kvitova dokonale tak se pripravit prave na tyhle tezky zapasy.. a jak sama rika vylozene se na tyhle zapasy tesi a ma je rada a dokaze vydat ze sebe na kurtu vsechno..to ze se ji nepovedl zapas s eraniovou neni vcelku podstatny
ja byhc to videl tak 70:30 pro kvitovou<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[Hovňous v periodě]

jejda, myslím, že s tím 70-30 jsi trochu přestřelil ... nebo bys opravdu vypsal na kvit pod 1,5 a na sharap přes 3 ??? v tom případě vidíš obrovský value na kvit, ne?<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[Mnězmaimajnázory]

presne tak nejak bych bych videl kurzy na kvitovou 1,4 a na rusku cca do tech 2,7 ..myslim ze se petra porad kurzove strasne nadcenuje (dost by me zajimalo jak je v tom kurzu na sharapovovou zaznemenana jeji medialita).. .. a ano ja vidim value na kvitovou
..ale malokdy hraji kurzy lehce pres dva a pod dva uz vubec ne ...jinak je mozny ze by petra mohla ze zacatku prohravat treba 3:0(bude zalazet kdo bude na servisu zacinat ) a pokud by se tak stalo tak nebudu vahat a dam ji potom na live<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[elmagico72]

ak mas fair kurz 1,5 na Petru a chcel by si aby tiekla 0:3 aby si tam mal lepsie kurzy, tak to neznamena ze potom tie kurzy budu hodnotnejsie, pretoze budu zodovedat priebehu a budu umerne tomu co bolo na zaciatku.. ak nemas EDGE pred zapasom, tak za stavu 0:3 pravdepodobne nebude tiez..

Nemozes ist do zapasu s tym ze pred zapasom to nevezmes, ale ak bude 0:3 tak ano... Za stavu 0:3 by si to mohol vziat ak sa nieco za tie tri gemy stane, co vyvoj kurzu ovplyvni, co pred zapasom nebolo jasne... (Petra hra fantasticky, ale triafa 1cm za lajnu, kazdy uder - ale kurzy rastu daleko rychlejsie) no urcite nie len s myslienkou vyssieho kurzu..

GL

este taka myslienka: to nielen Petra dokaze zahrat tieto zapasy skvele, ale vsetky velke hracky historie to dokazali zvladat, lebo len tento faktor ta dostane na post no.1 a tou velkou hrackou Maria bez pochyb je<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[Mnězmaimajnázory]

Nemozes ist do zapasu s tym ze pred zapasom to nevezmes, ale ak bude 0:3 tak ano... Za stavu 0:3 by si to mohol vziat ak sa nieco za tie tri gemy stane, co vyvoj kurzu ovplyvni, co pred zapasom nebolo jasne... (Petra hra fantasticky, ale triafa 1cm za lajnu, kazdy uder - ale kurzy rastu daleko rychlejsie) no urcite nie len s myslienkou vyssieho kurzu..

..to nesouhlasim,zalezi zase co je to za zapas a jaky by to byl prubeh,ale konkretne v tomhle zapase by ty kurzy vyleteli nekam kde si mylsim, ze by value na petru bylo jeste vyraznejsi nez pred zapasem

(jinak jen na doplneni, hral sem takhle petru temer pokazdy kdyz pohravala s lepsima souperkama (z top10) v prvnim setu, a pokazdy to otocila kdyz sem ji mel vsazenou, viz naposled s bartoli na hopman cupu v koncovce setu kdy podavala bartoli na viteztsvi...a i v tom vzajemnym zapase na wimbledonu sem hral petru hned po prvnim brejku sharapky na presnej vysledek 2:0 .....je mozny ze by to dnes vyjit jak naschval nemuselo, ale tim sem chtel rict, ze petre v tomhle dost verim, a pokud tam budou takovy kurzy jaky tam byvaj tak ji budu hrat snad jeste dlouho )<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[elmagico72]

no ved som ti to tam napisal, ze vziat to mozes jedine vtedy ak sa za tie tri gemy nieco stane co to ovplyvni, inak to nema dovod aby ten kurz nerastol umerne vyvoj/pre-match market...

neviem na zaklade coho by som si vytipoval zapas kde to moze rast alebo nie, podla mna sa subjektivne vopred ovplyvnujes a ked bude predsa len Petra tiect 0:3, tak sa do toho pustit z dovodu ze to cely den nosis v podvedomi /presne tento scenar/, pritom nemusis zohladnit vyvoj zapasu a fakt ze Maria zacne proste super...

ja osobne na to aby som nieco vsadil v livke nemozem mat len kurz, ale ten kurz musi niecomu zodpovedat.. neviem ci som svoju myslienku sformuloval zrozumitelne, hadam ano<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[Mnězmaimajnázory]

..no klasicky sem uz nevenoval pozornost tomu dalsimu co bylo naspany, prtz se me v tom citovanym odstavci uz hned nelibila ta prvni veta,ale kdyz to ctu znovu je to jak pises... sharapka muze nastoupit na servisu da v prvnim gamu 3 esa, pak jak pises se petra na servisu parkrat tesne vyhodi nebo zkazi mice na siti, jak se ji obcas zadari a sharapka brejkne.. pak tam da dalsi dve esa a potvrdi brejk... jasne ze musim videt ze petra ma chut hrat beha a ze ji nic neni a ma ten zapal do hry(ale toho se u ni momentalne skutecne nebojim,ze by tomu tak nebylo)

(uz mimo debatu, mrzi me ze misto sharapky nehraje ze serenou..v ten zapas sem doufal od druhyho kola a strasne by me zajimal vyvoj hry...snad se potkaj na jinym GS)<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[Hovňous v periodě]

presne tak nejak bych bych videl kurzy na kvitovou 1,4 a na rusku cca do tech 2,7

pozn.: 1,4 a proti 3,5<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[Mnězmaimajnázory]

..to beres asi podle pinnacle, ja sem ovlivnen livkama u rekre sazkovek <div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[elmagico72]

prepac fakt to nie je nic proti Tebe , len dalsia poznamka...

Fair kurzy si predsa nevypisujes ani podla lokaliek, ani podla rekre, ani podla pinnaclu, ale podla skutocnych kurzov... cize ked si vypisujes match kde to mas 50/50, tak nemozes predsa vypisat 1,8-1,8 ale ani 1,96-1,96 ale 2,0 - 2,0 ... ide prave o to aby si fair kurzami dokazal prekonat ten margin co maju bookies /v niektorych pripadoch MP/, preto sa u lokaliek da dlhodobo byt v pluse na chybach ale nie velkych trhoch..

pretoze v opacnom pripade by si na zapas 50/50, mal u rekre bookies value bet aj u kurzu 1,9 ci 1,95 (2,0 nehovoriac) a to predsa ziadne valuebety nie su <div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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