Zisk,vyteznost,profit,apod ...

Zajimalo by me ,jak je nejlepsi a nejobjektivnejsi zjistovat a zaznamenavat sve uspechy (pr. neuspechy..) v sazeni.
Existuje nejaky standart pro vypocet techto hodnot ??
Ktera z techto velicin by me jako sazkare ,ktery by chtel sledovat svoji uspesnost mela predevsim zajimat ??<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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Zajimalo by me ,jak je nejlepsi a nejobjektivnejsi zjistovat a zaznamenavat sve uspechy (pr. neuspechy..) v sazeni.
Existuje nejaky standart pro vypocet techto hodnot ??
Ktera z techto velicin by me jako sazkare ,ktery by chtel sledovat svoji uspesnost mela predevsim zajimat ??

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To je uplne vybornej dotaz!
Tady vsichni hazej milionama a tvarej se jako machri, ve skutecnosti se uspesnost sazkare odvozuje od ROI, nebo vnitrniho vynosoveho procenta..asi jako kdyz clovek investuje do podniku. Pak je jedno jestli sazis desitky korun nebo desetitisice dolaru - uspesnosti sazkaru jsou srovnatelny.
Sazkari obvykle vezmou za zaklad svuj bank co maji na sazeni (rekneme 10000).
Z nej se odvozuji tzv. jednotky (units). 1 jednotka = 1 procento banku, tzn. v nasem pripade 100.
Pak uz se nerika sazim za 300 ale za 3 jednotky.
pokud sazi za 3 jednotky s kurzem 3.5 (americky +250), tak pokud nebude sazka vracena, jsou dve moznosti:
Kdyz vyhraje ma o 2.5x3=7.5 jednotky vic, tzn. 107.5.
Kdyz prohraje ma 97 jednotek.
A takhle ty vyhry a prohry scita a odcita a na konci sezony je hnedle videt jak na tom je.
ROI je z toho lehce odvoditelna - podle vzorce ROI(v procentech) = pocet jednotek - 100.
Jinak asi jsou k tomu jiste nejaky databaze, da se to davat trebas do excelu, coz doporucuju a predevsim tam vzdy zaznamenat cislo tiketu!!!, obcas nekde neco spadne a kdyz mas cislo tiketu, nemuze to byt na skodu.
Ja mam svuj vlastni program, spojenej jeste s jinejma vecma.<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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Tak nevim s tebou prezentovanou metodou je to sice jasny a prehledny ,ale trochu to nepocita s eventualitou ,ze tvuj kapital na sazeni s e v prubehu mesice meni a podle tve uspesnosti dost vyrazne meni cisla i v mesicich nasledujicich.
Ja jsem zacal praktikovat trochu jinou metodu
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Na konci mesice sectu vsechny nasazene tikety ( samozrejme i s MP)
,dale pak vsechny ciste vyhry dohoromady. Cistou vyhru podelim jednim procentem z celkove prosazene sumy za mesic a dostanu procentualni vyteznost.
Delam snad neco spatne ,nebo neni tahle statistika zavadejici ????<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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Cistou vyhru podelim jednim procentem z celkove prosazene sumy za mesic a dostanu procentualni vyteznost.

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Melo by to bejt totez. To co pises znamena ze menis hodnotu jednotky podle toho jak vyhravas. Pokud jsi tak dobrej handicapper, tak to tak delas asi sparvne. Nicmene vetsina lidi osciluje kolem nuly (aby sazkovky prezily je potreba aby se ve skutecnosti pohybovala vetsina pod nulou), tzn. ze jednotka se u nich nemeni.
... ta metoda jednotek se pouziva predevsim ke srovnavani sazkaru a jejich tipu. Proste cim vic si jsi jistej tim vic das jednotek, jednotky se pak pouze trivialne sectou a hned se vidi jakej jsi handicpper. Pouziva se to samozrejme predevsim na forech, kde se davaji sharp tipy. A vyteznost se z toho da teda vyvodit, pouze pokud nemenis hodnotu jednotky.
Ja mam jinej system jaxem rekl, ale obvykle se to dela tak, ze jdes s bankem na zacatku napr do NFL sezony, to co vyhravas vice mene stahujes z5 a hodnota jednotky se nemeni.
Samozrejme pokud clovek dela bank, hodnota jednotky mu narusta, a hodne velkou merou se na tom podilej i bonusy :wink:<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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No s tim menenim jednotky to zase neni tak zhavy ,spis jsem mel na mysli ze v den vyplatni se ti kapital pochopitelne o neco zvedne a naopak v dnech predvyplatnich je nutna max. obezretnost ,aby jsi nezasekl sekyrku prilis hluboko.
Spise bych chtel vedet nazory nebo postrehy kolik procent na konci mesice odhali jestli jsem uz sazkar kvalitni urovne nebo obycejny strelec s obcasnymi uspechy i kdyz podporenymi vyhrami ( nemluvim o celkovem prodelku ,tak daleko snad neskoncim :lol: ) Jaka hranice je povazovana celkove za prechod k vydelecnemu sazeni???<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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Cokoliv co je v plusu se povazuje za uspech ;-)
Myslim ze 100% rocne je uspech...je to geometricka rada, takze mesicne je to velmi maly procento, nechci to pocitat...ale tak 2 az 3% jsou myslim slusny.
Strasne dulezity jsou 3 veci ktery ROI zvysej:
bonusy - vytocit a jit jinam ze zacatku
nakup kurzu, tj. sazet kde je kurz nejvyssi byt i jen o kousek
s tim souvisi sazet pokud mozno na sazkovkach ktery nemaji full juice (interwetten, gamebookers maji snad double juice)
normalni juice je na HCP dvou prilezitosti 1.91x1.91 (-110x-110), tzv. 20 cent
Lepsi juice ma trebas canbet na NBA a NFL (1.935x1.935) nebo expekt (1.92x1.92)
Obdoba zvyhodnenyho juice je napr free half point na skybook, nebo ruzny promoprogramy na betcris nebo VIPsports kde ti plati za to ze sazis
Pinnacle ma standard (napr i na tenis!!!! 10 cent tj -105 tj 1.952x1.952), totez na hlavni sporty ma betcascade
na MLB na Pinnacle nebo 5D na moneyline je juice jeste nizsi
a na burzach najdes skoro nulovej juice ale je treba zapocitat provize, takze to je treba zvazit<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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Jinak zajimava statistika:
pokud budes sazet handicapy s full juice (1.91) musis, abys byl v plusu, spravne tipnout vic nez 53% zapasu
pokud budes sazet handicapy s half juice (pinnacle, cascade - 1.952), abys byl v plusu tak ti staci tipnout 51% spravne.
Tyhle maly rozdily v kurzech se po urcity dobe strsne moc pocitaj!<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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opravdu 2-3% ,to je zvlastni ja uz se treti mesic pohybuju na dvoucifernem cisle ( statistiku vedu od zacatku MLB)<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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tak to ses machr! nicmene az dlouhodobe se to pocita
kveten byl pro sazkovky strasnej mesic v MLB
jestli ti to takhle jde, a zacnes sazet na sazkovkach s non full juice, tak si jeste polepsis
jestli budes mit naladu, tak hod naky tipy do sekce sharp pred sazkama
nejlip zhruba v tomhle formatu:
Kansas City Royals +1.5 @ 1.709, 5 jednotek :wink:
hnedle se uvidi :wink:<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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S tim prispivanim je to trochu jinak jeden tip na jeden den vetsinou nestaci a nekdy je potreba bleskove presazet a solo tipy to neni moje silna parketa<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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S tim prispivanim je to trochu jinak jeden tip na jeden den vetsinou nestaci a nekdy je potreba bleskove presazet a solo tipy to neni moje silna parketa

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ok!
ale na netu akovky jede malokdo... nicmene mnoho stesti, i ty tam jsou samozrejme vyhodnejsi<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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No tak pokud sazis akovky, cimz se juice jeste nasobi, a presto jsi na dvoucifernym procentualnim zisku tak to si asi velkej machr ;-)<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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lego to myslis jako vazne ???? me to porad pripada ze preslapuju na miste , a prave tim ze se chci vrhnout na netove sazeni se posunout opet trochu dopredu<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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opravdu 2-3% ,to je zvlastni ja uz se treti mesic pohybuju na dvoucifernem cisle ( statistiku vedu od zacatku MLB)

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Ze se vam do toho pletu... ale 10% mesicne to je rocne 1.1 na 12tou??? Pres 2.5 nasobek zakladu. To je velice neobvykly nadstandard!
to orbital: 2-3% jsou ok ale 100% ti to neda<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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Tak ted opravdu nevim na cem jsem to dvouciferne cislo je moc nebo spise malo ???<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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dvouciferny cislo je kazdopadne strasne moc!
ale samozrejme zalezi predevsim z kolika zapasu je odvozeny
pokud jich je treba 200 je to uzasny
pokud 15 tak to muze bejt statisticka vychylka
Kauflande mas pravdu no, za kolik je dneska pastika?<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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Pockej z kolika zapasu ,uz jsem predem psal ze davam z 90% akovky o 2-5 zapasech.Jak s tim proboha zase souvisi pocet zapasu???
Zacinam mit pocit ,ze jsem uplne blbej :oops:<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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sorry ja nepremejslim v akovkach ale single sazkach
tzn. 1 sazka... 1 zapas
kdyz mas 15 zapasu, tj. 15 sazek a z toho 9 vyhernich, tj. v prumeru cca +3 jednotek, je to dvoucifrna vyhra ale na malym vzorku
kdezto kdyz mas 150 sazek a 90 vyher, tj cca 30 jednotek, tak to uz je dukaz ze jsi dobrej...
tj. v tvym pripade jde o to kolik mas ako sazek...<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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Takze mam od pristiho mesice zaznamenavat jeste pocet podanych tiketu ???<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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kdyz o tom tak premejslim a trvas na akovkach, tak musis brat jednu akovku jako jednu udalost, bych rekl, takze asi jo.
Nicmene pokud se budes pohybovat kolem 50% tak akovky jediny co udelaji, ze ti zvysi volatilitu, mozna proto jsi na dvou cifrach. Bud pujdes strasne nahoru oprosti tomu, kdybys sazel singly anebo strasne dolu.
Ono na kamennejch sazkovkach je do jisty miry racionalni sazet ako, protoze "rozpustis" manipulak. Na netu manipulak neni, takze je to pouze vec co zvysuje rizikovost, pokud mas dobry tipy a pokud mas spatny tak jen driv budes na nule... bych rekl.<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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to co pises je temer vedecka prace .... si u toho fakt pripadam jako nejakej negramota
a nestaci prozatim pouhy fakt ze jsem uz treti mesic v plusu ???<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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staci :lol: :lol: :lol:
ale kdybys sel nahodou do minusu, tak jen zkus neco zmenit.
Nicmene... co si budem rikat... je to hlavne o matice.
Ja vim napr. hxxxo jestli je robredo lepsi nez baghdatis, jestli brazilie ma mit +1.5 nebo +2...
ale vim jak sazeji lidi a jak jsou kurzy vychyleny...a lidi vzdycky prehnane sazej favority a Over.
zkratka co komu vychazi to by menit nemel...
a v kazdym pripade by se melo sazet v co nejvyhodnejsim kurzu a pokud sazis favority tak neni lepsi sazkovky nez nejaka profi, protoze tam preci jen sharpove sazej na dogy, protoze tam ta hodnota je, tzn. kurzy na favority jsou tam uplne nejvyssi.<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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