Neco pro programatory

Napadla me takova vec pro playoff libovolneho sportu.

Rekneme ze jsme schopni tipnout, jaky je fer kurz na konkretni zapasy playoff. Team A doma bude treba 1.333, team B venku 4.0. Team B doma 2.0, team A venku 2.0

Byl by zajimavy skript, kde by bylo mozne projet vsechny scenare vyher a proher, takze by to vyhodilo pravdepodobnost vyhry v serii, pripadne pravdepodobnost vyhry v X zapasech. Samozrejme ve skriptu by byly promenne jednotlive kurzy a taky by se muselo zadat, na kolik viteznych zapasu se serie hraje. Asi v tom hodnota matematicky nebude, ale co kdyby...<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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takto nejako:

Kód:

---

<?php

$pA = $argv[1]; // 0.75
$pB = $argv[2]; // 0.25

$bestof = $argv[3]; // 7
$nwin = round($bestof/2 + 0.5);

$s=0;
while($s<1<<$bestof) {
    $prob = 1;
    $wA = $wB = 0;
    for($i=$bestof-1; $i>=0 && $wA<$nwin && $wB<$nwin; $i--) {
        $res = ($s>>$i)&1;
        $prob *= $res ? ($i%2==0 ? $pA : 1-$pB) : ($i%2==0 ? 1-$pA : $pB);
        if($res) $wA++; else $wB++;
    }
    $sres[$wA.":".$wB] += $prob;
    if($wA>$wB) $probA += $prob;
    $s += 1<<($bestof-$wA-$wB);
}

var_dump($sres);

echo "$probA\n";

?>

---

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klikacia verzia:

http://www.liveodds.ic.cz/bestof_gui.php<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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wow super
jeste me napadlo, uz pozde, ze je potreba zakomponovat prubeh playoff, tj. distribuci home vs. road zapasu... nebo je to jedno? to se mi nezda
tj. pro best of 7 treba system 2 2 1 1 1 vs. 2 3 2 atd<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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Citace:

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Původně odeslal Orbital

wow super
jeste me napadlo, uz pozde, ze je potreba zakomponovat prubeh playoff, tj. distribuci home vs. road zapasu... nebo je to jedno? to se mi nezda
tj. pro best of 7 treba system 2 2 1 1 1 vs. 2 3 2 atd

---

naprogramovany je system, ze si menia domace prostredie po kazdom zapase;
pokial uvazujeme, ze vysledky zapasov su na sebe nezavisle (co v realne asi nie su), tak potom je to to iste ako 2 2 1 1 1<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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jasne, bavme se za predpokladu, ze vysledky jsou nezavisle

vezmeme 232 a 22111... nebude konkretni pravdepodobnost serie odlisna? mam pocit, ze 4:1 serie je pravdepodobnejsi u 22111 nez 232, mylim se?

jak se dostat k 4:1... prvni 4 zapasy jsou stejne, pokud je po 4 zapasech 3:1 s tim, ze ten co zacinal doma vyhral jednou venku, tak musi vyhrat zapas doma, kde je mnohem vetsi favorit nez v patem zapase venku..... kde mam chybu v uvaze?<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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tu mas 2-3-2

http://www.liveodds.ic.cz/bestof_gui_2. ... &h=hhaaahh

je to vseobecne, takze si tam cez tie h/a mozes nastavit seriu aku chces<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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Vylezaji z toho hned moc zajimave veci
serie LAL/PHO

davam pro LAL doma 75% vyhra, venku 45% vyhra /odpovida tak +2 spread, mozna to ale bude tak +3, prosim odhadujte/
vysledok pravdepodobnost
0:4 0.01265625
1:4 0.02671875
2:4 0.03994140625
3:4 0.091810546875
4:3 0.112212890625
4:2 0.25259765625
4:1 0.29390625
4:0 0.17015625
Pravdepodobnost, ze A vyhra celu seriu: 0.828873046875

pokud nekdo chce pravdepodobnosti, tak zde... jak-sazet/jake-procento-odpovida-jakemu-kurzu-t971.html

podle pinu je kurz na LAL to win serie 0.77, takze by mela byt value na favoritovi

moc zajimave je toto /kurzy pinnacle/
Exact Series Result
Mon 5/17 Phoenix Suns vs Los Angeles Lakers
06:00 PM 501 Phoenix Suns 4-0 44.190
502 Phoenix Suns 4-1 27.810
503 Phoenix Suns 4-2 8.290
504 Phoenix Suns 4-3 11.650
505 Los Angeles Lakers 4-0 8.480
506 Los Angeles Lakers 4-1 3.720
507 Los Angeles Lakers 4-2 5.200
508 Los Angeles Lakers 4-3 3.800

napriklad podle trhu a pinnacle he 4-2 mnohem vic pravdepodobne nez 4-3, ale podle mistniho vypoctu ma kurz 11.65 /tj asi 0.087 procentualne/ hodnotu, protoze ten vypocet dava 0.091

dale je value na LAL 4-1 a 4-2, zato 4-0 a 4-3 neni vubec /tj. lay prilezitost/

moc zajimave, samozrejme je potreba odhadnout ty vsechny ML a zjednodusuje se to tou nezavislosti<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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Nehral si sa s tymi seriami ?
Lebo pri 2-2-1-1-1 to vychadza inak:
http://www.liveodds.ic.cz/bestof_gui_2. ... &h=hhaahah

Pridal som tam este fair kurzy nech to nemusis prepocitavat.


EDIT:
mal si tam toto (2-2-2-1):
http://www.liveodds.ic.cz/bestof_gui_2. ... &h=hhaahha<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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kurva<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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skvela prace s temi kurzy prepocitanymi, myslim ze teda mame value na 4:1, ale jen technickou /urcite nebude moc hodnoty na lekrs v kazdym zapase, spis naopak/<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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Citace:

---

Původně odeslal Orbital

skvela prace s temi kurzy prepocitanymi, myslim ze teda mame value na 4:1, ale jen technickou /urcite nebude moc hodnoty na lekrs v kazdym zapase, spis naopak/

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a 4:0 ?<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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jo, uz si tu pripadam jak debil

jako vzdy jsem si spatne precetl zadani, do policka cislo 2 jsem daval 0.45, ale ma tam byt 0.55, team A nebude favorit

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Pokud bych znal skutečnou pravděpodobnost výsledků, sázel bych taky :D
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