Remiza na tretinu v NHL

Zajimaly by me odhady. Doufam, ze jsem se na to uz neptal.

Da se rict, ze kurz 3 ma vzdy hodnotu? Polde me ano, uz jen z toho duvodu, ze totals byvaji cca 1.5.

Tzn. existuje cca 50% pravdepodobnost vysledku 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, rekneme 16.66 kazda, vysledek 1-1 bude mit min nez 16.66, rekneme ale ze k 13% by 1-1 byt mohlo

0-0 a 1-1 je tedy skoro 30%, kdyz prihodime 2-2 a 3-3, tak jsme na 33%, coz je kurz 3

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Pohled do statistiky mi říká, že v letos v 1223 zápasech bylo 416 remíz v 1.tr, 366 ve 2 tr. a 382 ve 3.tr. , celkem z 3669 třetin bylo tedy 1164 remíz. (nemám tam posledních pár zápasů).<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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31.7%, tudiz kurz jako 3.1+ by mel mit value..samozrejme velmi hrube<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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ak sa zamerias na dvojice v play off ako

San Jose - Colorado

1.zapas (0:0, 0:1, 1:1)
2.zapas (1:1, 3:3, 1:1, 1:0)
3.zapas (0:0, 0:0, 0:0, 1:0)
4.zapas (0:1, 1:0, 0:0, 0:1)


Buffalo - Boston

1.zapas (1:0, 1:1, 0:0)
2.zapas (2:0, 1:2, 0:3)
3.zapas (1:1, 0:0, 1:0)

tak ta hodnota tam rozhodne bude... dufam, ze tieto dvojice pojdu az do 7. zapasu :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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z toho bych nic nevyvozoval zrovna<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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tak to ja prave ano, prave toto su najvyrovnanejsie dvojice, zbytok - jednotlive zapasy vyrazne bud na jednu, alebo druhu stranu.

San Jose - Colorado z 12 tretin - 9x plichta, z tohto sa myslim nieco vyvodit da. SJ pravidelne vyhrava konferenciu, alebo celu zakladnu cast, potom pride play off a koniec. Oni si to urcite uvedomuju a preto hraju opatrne.

Buffalo - Boston - tu je vyrovnanost vykonosti este vysia.<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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1. tretina

celkom 0.3498

podla typu
1 0.2797
2 0.3517
3 0.3909

podla sezony
2000 0.3580
2001 0.3634
2002 0.3581
2003 0.3699
2005 0.3504
2006 0.3364
2007 0.3307
2008 0.3480
2009 0.3333

2. tretina
celkom 0.3105

podla typu
1 0.2657
2 0.3123
3 0.3286

podla sezony
2000 0.3031
2001 0.3292
2002 0.3263
2003 0.3274
2005 0.3028
2006 0.3100
2007 0.3016
2008 0.2962
2009 0.2974

3. tretina
celkom 0.3078

podla typu
1 0.2615
2 0.3098
3 0.3244

podla sezony
2000 0.3184
2001 0.3270
2002 0.3030
2003 0.3204
2005 0.3014
2006 0.2979
2007 0.2809
2008 0.3111
2009 0.3116

pocty zapasov

celkom 12478

podla typu
1 715
2 11057
3 706

podla sezony
2000 1313
2001 1376
2002 1416
2003 1414
2005 1407
2006 1400
2007 1406
2008 1411
2009 1335

typ
1 - pripravny
2 - regular
3 - playoff

sezona je rok kedy sezona zacala

je tam samozrejme korelacia s overom a vyrovnanostou zapasu, takze kurz 3 nema value vzdy
ale pohlad na statistiky hovori, ze prva tretina playoff by nemusela byt spatna<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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Cau, nevite nekdo kde majou nejlepsi kurzy na sazeni na tretiny? Ja se tedka divam na bwin, a ty kurzy na tretiny pres 3 moc nejdou. A na kterou tretinu se podle vas teda vyplati sazet? Na prvni?<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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cau, zdravim
tohle bych si zrovna nechal pro sebe
sorry<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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skoda no... :cry:<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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