jeden takovej sazeci system

[Orbital]

dosel mi dotaz a doufam ze postera, co mi ho zaslal neurazi, ze prijdu ho nadhodim sem:
jde o sazeci system z hcp fora covers:
http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post ... 793740&t=0

Quick Recap of last night:

Golden State +1.5


a quick review of my system..

4 DAY CYCLE SYSTEM
DAY 1 = GAME
DAY 2 = OFF
DAY 3 = GAME
DAY 4 = GAME
DAY X = NEXT GAME

1.) FADE SAID TEAM ON DAY 4 AND ON DAY X TAKE THEM, UNLESS:

A.) TWO "DAY 4" TEAMS MEET = TAKE THE HOME TEAM (this may be adjusted due to consensus / line movments later on, but for now I will stick with this simplified form)

B.) IF TEAM IS ON "DAY X" AND THEY FACE OFF WITH A TEAM COMING OFF ANY BACK-2-BACK SEQUENCE, FADE TEAM ON "DAY X".

C.) (and this is the addition~) WHEN THE CONSENSUS IS >60% AGAINST AND THE LINE MOVEMENT IS >3, FADE THE SYSTEM PICK. **IF THE LINE MOVEMENT IS <3, STAY WITH THE SYSTEM.

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[Orbital]

ja k tomu muzu rict nasledujici... to ze to nekomu funguje 11-2, neznamena dlouhodobe naprosto ale naprosto nic

no a na druhou stranu je mozna dobry se nad tim zamyslet, protoze podstatou je cyklus zapasu v NBA, jde o sekvence:
DAY 1 = hraje
DAY 2 = odpociva
DAY 3 = hraje
DAY 4 = hraje
DAY X = o tuto hru jde

pak jsou tam podminky co delat v dni X, zda ten team sazet ci naopak sazet proti nemu /"fade" je to slovicko co potrebujem / ci nikoliv, bohuzel ted nemam cas na doslovny preklad, je tam i pokud lide na ten team hodne sazi tak jit proti pohybu lajny

z meho pohledu: ta statistika mozna tedy funguje, ale pokud dame dohromady tech nekonecne mnoho korelaci a trendu co se daji vymyslet (od barvy dresu trikotu po prumernou vysku divaku sedicich v 17te rade), tak jich zpetne a i dopredne bude nekonecne mnoho jiste fungovat /byt jde o nekonecno s nizsi mocnosti/, tudiz, jako ekonometrove, musime vybirat veci co statisticky funguji a k tomu mame nejakou teorii PROC tak funguji, neni mi jasny proc v dni x sazet proti pohybu lajny pokud je vetsi nez nejake cislo... to tam ten chlapik proste nevysvetluje

na druhou stranu: b2b zapasy a predevsim na frontendu, tj. pokud team hraje druhy den (coz ovsem neni tento pripad, jde o DAY 1), tak hraje uplne jinak nez kdyz ma den volno pote a situace je ejste jina pokud se musi cestovat; stejne tak je zajimave jit proti konsenzu a pohybum... obcas to delam, ale opakuju: je potreba mit nejakou teorii, PROC jit proti pohybu /zakladni teorie je ze linesmaker nebyva debil, to je pravda/ pokud lze pridat nejakou dalsi (napriklad team xy hraje v blowoutu uplne jinak nez podle stats apod, tim je to pote lepsi)

proste tomuhle systemu, ackoliv krouzi kolem veci, ktere jsou urcite podstatny, chybi prave ty vysvetlujici teorie, ale prosim berte to jen jako muj nazor a samozrejme, nikdo nic poradne nevi

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[valuelama]

Čas vše vyřeší, vyřešil i otázku spolehlivosti tohoto systému. Systém přestal fungovat Děkuji Orbi za myšlenku o korelacích a výšce diváků v 17té řadě, svatá pravda!<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[Orbital]

no nevadi, vsak on zas nekdo neco vymysli <div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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