Zajimavosti

[spy_press]

Tez jsem neco malo dokupoval. Pokud jsme u vnimani pozitiv, i kdyz podle me je na takovy uvahy jeste brzo - mozna lepsi, nez kdyby ten drop jen kopiroval akcie. Jestli se btc vzpamatuje z tohoto, paradoxne to muze nakonec trochu ozivit safe-haven-narativ (a la "pokud se btc vyhrabe z tohoto, pak ho uz nezabije nic").<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[SacraMoso]

Zbyva turecko, indonesie a chvili jeste jizni amerika, neco se hrat da, neklesejte na mysli!<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[Orbital]

Kryptomeny prece jsou jen dusledkem sveta. Vzdyt je to napsany v genesis bloku bitcoinu naprosto jednoznacne. Kdyby svet neexperiemntoval s natahovanim vsech aktiv az k prasknuti, cehoz si je vedomo cim dal vic lidi, neexistovaly by investice do bitcoinu. Kdyby existoval normalni rezim (tim nechci rict ze za danych podminek technologickyho rozvoje a socialnich zmen je to vubec mozny), kde si muzu koupit akcie nejaky obycejny firmy, ta mi bud evyplacet po odecteni iflace 5-10% a tyhle procenta bude platit ze zisku, co zaplati prokazatelne zakaznici a ne nejaky subvence vlad at uz primo nebo neprimo pres nejaky forndy nebo levny penize a ty spotrebitele by si na to vydelali a ne pujcili... tak treba ani ja nekoupim jedinej bitcoin a o tom to cely je. Jen idiot si muze myslet ze kryptomeny jsou o technologickym pokroku samotnym o sobe, ze je to nejaka genailni vec ten blockchain. Kryptomeny maji hodnotu diky technolgickymu pokroku, ale ne v ramci kryptomen, ale vsude jinde okolo, jak se zmenila spolecnost, ekonomika i politika a to udelalo prostor po poptavku po kryptomenach.

Napriklad od lidi jako jsem ja. Protoze nebyt toho socialne-politicko-ekonomickyho pokroku, ja ani me podobny lidi, co sosaj love z digitalniho sveta, by nikdy nezbohatli a furt bych rozvazel zasilky po Praze nebo mozna utiral prdel UK duchodcum. Prave lidi co zbohatli z toho novyho sveta, resp. jejich jista cast, si je velmi dobre vedoma ty krehkosti toho samyho sveta, protoze uprimne, zas tak dobry jsme nikdy nebyli a ty zisky jsou nezaslouzeny a za kazdou party se plati. Takze proste ten primarni kick kryptomen jsemm presvedcenej, jsou lidi jako tohle. Pak se na to samozrejme nabalili vsichni ty spekulanti atd. Ale relativne dost bohaty lidi jako Ver tomu dali ten kick a vychazi to prave z ty nafoukly ekonomiky na jaky ty lidi zbohatli a vuci ktery se chteji hedzovat (a ten hedge, patrne jiz zcela nesmyslne, se nejak dal prenasi do altu).<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[Vlkodlak]

Tak Watford F.C. uz ma dresy s logem bitcoinu.<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[Vlkodlak]

stock to flow model

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitco...-halving-nears

bitcoin-price-matches-stock-to-flow-forecast-as-100k-halving-nears

podle nejz by se cena mela zacit vyrazneji hybat od kvetna 2020<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[spy_press]

Na medium.com se nedavno rozjela polemika o S2F modelu, ma ho castecne podkopat teorie efektivnich trhu, podle ktery jsou vsechny halvingy priced-in. Coz mi uprimne receno prijde jako blbost v momente, kdy se sebenaplnujicim proroctvim muze stat spojovani zajmu Facebooku o vlastni kryptomenu s narustem legitimity (a ceny bitcoinu) loni na jare. Jinymi slovy, vseobecny nazirani bitcoinu je imho stale jeste dost mimo natolik, ze o nejakym efektivnim zaclenovani halvingu do investicnich strategii nelze moc mluvit. Co z toho vseho jsou kecy a jak presny modely jsou, se ale ukaze relativne brzy<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[Vlkodlak]

ja to vidim svym selskym rozumem ze vysledna cena je je dana nabidkou a poptavkou, ale my nevime, jaka bude v urcitem bode v budoucnosti poptavka. Poptavka je dana spoustou veci treba spolecenskou situaci - napr. krizi financniho systemu, vseobecnem povedomi o cryptu a take naladou. Rekneme ze se nekdy v dobe od ted do puleni stane, ze se prijme zakon, ktery crypto zakaze a tim padem nalada poklesne, bude mit halving mensi pozitivni efekt na cenu, protoze bude nizsi poptavka. V tomto pripade by tedy halving mel mensi efekt na vzrust ceny nez nejaky halving ke kteremu by se najelo od ted primo jenom za samych pozitivnich udalosti. Jinymi slovy ten halving je neznama promena, ktera hraje roli v ustanoveni ceny po nem, ktera je taky neznama.<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[Orbital]

k tematu racionalnich trhu:
kdokoliv kdo mel btc mohl claimnout airdropy, naposledy treba MWC (za 1btc ted momnetalne cca free 300 usd)
claimnulo to min nez 1% lidi; tj. 99% lidi je iracionalnich i v pomerne citelny a jasny situaci, kde risk je pomerne maly

hypotezy o zapocteni halvingu do ceny jsou proste akademicky sracky<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[burila]

vie niekto ako je to s burzami pri airdropoch? kazda burza si moze claimnut vsetky airdropy a ma vlastne free money?<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[Orbital]

Pokud jeji adresy nejsou verejne zname, tak muze samozrejme. Pokud jsou zname, tak casto nemuze, protoze ten kdo dela airdrop ty adresy excluduje.<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[Vlkodlak]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGCPzSdlzV4

It's not the oil, it's the debt - Peter Shiff komentar<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[Sklipkan]

Ale ten soucasny vyvoj ceny docela jasne ukazuje jak vnima BTC vetsina lidi, oni v tom nehledaj nejakou jistotu v dobe krize, nebo hrouceni ekonomiky jako u zlata. Ale vidi v tom rizikovou investici, ktera muze hodne vyrust(s ohledem na ten historicky vyvoj) a davaji do toho jen takovy rizikovy penize jako sazku. Je to vlastne prvni prilezitost videt chovani BTC v dobe zacinajici krize a padu akcii a chova se uplne stejne narozdil od toho zlata treba.
Samozrejme na tohle chapu argument, ze skutecny smysl BTC se ukaze az kdyz se ekonomiky zhrouti, ale jen rikam, jak to vnimaji podle te ceny lidi.<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[Orbital]

Dopoustis se nejaky nevim jaky chyby ale sere me to cist. To, ze pada cena BTC / nebo roste neznamena nic o "vetsine lidi". Vetsina lidi nikdy neovlivnovala cenu btc. Whales a mineri to delaji. Samozrejme to co se deje je argument proti safe haven hypoteze, nicmene dneska pada i zlato.

A proc pada? Nedava to smysl zdanlive - lidi stahuji assets ze zlata a kupuji akcie. To samy muze byt u BTC. Musime pockat, za me jsme v buy teritoriu.<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[Mnězmaimajnázory]

https://cryptopotato.com/hodlers-giv...h-7-8-million/
zajimave je to nacasovani<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[Sklipkan]

No kazdopadne je to pruser ta situace a taky i pro sazkare, vzdyt co zbylo k sazeni? Vse zruseno, plno sazkovek bude mit problemy. Jeste, ze se tohle nestalo na podzim.<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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