Bitcoin

[ciaco]

Sazim na strednedoby silny rust, kratkodobe vidim dalsi target na 650$, tam cekam velkou korekci na ktere bych snad naskocil zpet, i kdyz to same jsem si rikal kdyz byl za 250$ ze prodam na 400$...

Akorat nechapu, co se deje s objemy na cinskych burzach, ten narust volume je az 20 nasobny oproti letosnimu letu (Huobi), a proc volume na mimoasijskych burzach zustava porad stejne. Co je tim tlakem v Asii?<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[Orbital]

ten sell na 400 i driv by byl, kdyby ta dynamika narustu byla jina (nelinearni); tohle neni ten typicky narust jako v minulosti (zatim), tudiz se na trhu deje taky neco jineho

volume na mimoasijskych burzach je podle me stejny protoze proste market-makeri jsou na asijskych burzach, ktere jsou ne zcela levne dosazitelne, tudiz ty arby budou mit jisty dost velky omezeni, takze mimo asii se proste nic moc nedeje

pro me muze byt sell kdekoliv mezi 500-5K, to cislo samo o sobe moc nerika, to je jak rikat si ze prodam nejakou sazku pri kurzu XY... taky blbost, pokud nejsou zmineny nejaky okolnosti<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[Orbital]

perfektni clanek: Eating the Bitcoin Cake - CoinDesk
v kratkosti jde o takovy IT tradeoff, ktery jde za hranice bitcoinu

jakykoliv "decentralizovany" system bude muset vzdy resit kompromis mezi
decentralizaci
bezpecnosti
rychlosti
cenou
neomezenosti

je to jak heisenbergiva teorie neurcitosti

z clanku mj. plyne i to co zde bylo diskutovano pred par dny: a to, ze decentalizovany systen NENI levnejsi nez centralizovany

Alchemy. The science of understanding, deconstructing and reconstructing matter. However, it is not an all powerful art. It is impossible to create something out of nothing. If one wishes to obtain something, something of equal value must be given. This is the law of equivalent exchange.

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[gugatronic3]

Bitcoin developers create new digital currency : CalvinAyre.com<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[Orbital]

The Bitcoin software is controlled by a small group of people who decide exclusively what can and cannot be changed

divny ne, mi to prijde jako selfpromo ripple & comp.<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[Orbital]

Bitcoin analyza

Tak asi jako kazdej, kdo nakupoval pred par mesici, ale porad za malo, si rvu vlasy, ze tak za malo a premyslim co dal.

Btc jsem zaal nakupovat nekde kolem 380USD a prikupoval az nekde k 200 na podzim, kde jsem nakoupil valnou vetsinu, s tim, ze nejpravdepodobnejsi scenar byl, ze se btc bude houpat mezi 200-250 a budu nad 250 prodavat a pri 200 nakupovat. Nicmene nastal jinej scenar s rustem k 500 a ted korekci pod 400.

Presto jsem teda neprodal nic, protoze podle me se situace meni. Faktory o ktere ted jde jsou nasledujici:

1. Puleni v cervenci. Netreba opakovat, tezit se bude pulka, tj. pokud bereme VELMI zjednodusujici predpoklad, ze bitcoiny, co jdou na trh, jsou vsechny od tezaru a musi jim zaplatit naklady, tak by cena BTC mela jit na dvojnasobek. S tim jsem pocital, ale az pozdeji. Stalo se to defacto ted. Muze to byt nahoda, ale nemusi. Stale jeste je mozne, ze tenhle faktor se do ceny fakt nepromitl a nekdy v souvislosti s pulenim (podobne jako u LTC), se dno ceny znovu posune na dvojnasobek. Muze k tomu dojit pred i po datu puleni. God knows.

2. Politika FEDu. Slavny zvyseni o .25% bodu pred par tydny uz vsichni chapou, ze byt nemelo. Tudiz se nejen nebudou zvysovat sazby dale, jak s tim trh pocital (viz. pokles dolaru v psolednich dnech), ale mozna se opet snizi a dokonce se mluvi u dolaru o zapornych urokovych sazbach. Tzn. to drzeni penez se pekne zdrazi, resp trh na to muze hrat. Nulova sazba bitcoinu bude mozna vyssi..

3. Svetova ekonomika je (opet) v pici a Cina se (opet) hrouti. Nemusi k tomu ani dojit. Staci zpravy o mozne depreciaci yuanu a hlavni trh pro btc = Cina, se zas muze urvat a udelat bublinku.

4. Kazdy dalsi den, co se bitcoin nezhroutil, je narust jeho hodnoty a stability.

5. Problemy s ruznymi forks Bitcoinu: podle me to je vec, co drzi btc dole. Viz ten calnek pred par tydny co srazil hodnotu slusne. Problemy s technickym omezenim poctu transakci atd. Podle me to jsou veci uzasny pro cloveka co nakupuje.. pokud verite tomu, co reknu. 1. Vsem jde o to samy, takze prpste z teorrie her je jasny, ze se dohodnout nakonec budou chtit/muset, nebo ze to proste nekdo vyhraje a zbytek se pripoji. Technicky limit transakci nebyl NIKDY problem. Ano btc transakce nejsou zadarmo a ano, budou do budoucna aspon pro mensi castky drazsi nez poplatky kreditnich karet (bitcoin poplatky jsou spis flat fee, opravte me jestli kecam; tj. jestli prevadite cent nebo milion, system to stoji stejne), ale o to nejde. Mikroplatby v budoucnu budou fungovat mozna na centralizovanych branach at uz odvozenych od btc nebo ne... o to u btc od zacatku neslo, i kdyz 99% lidi tvrdi ze ano. Btc odjakziva ma mit funkci rezervni meny a meny pro sedocerny trh. Jeste chvili tohle bude trhu trvat, nez si to uvedomi, ze o ty mikroplatby v automatech na kafe fakt nejde a pak, pokud btc bude zit, cena vystreli.

Secteno podtrzeno. Nikdy bych netusil, ze pote co narvu asi 10% banku do neceho a to neco stoupne o 100%, ze by to byl zas buy. Ale nemuzu si pomoct, pokud pujde cena nekde k 370 usd, tak budu zas docela zurive nakupovat a proto pisu tenhle clanek...<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[Alx]

6. Nelze zapomenout na neustaly narust poctu transakci (v soucasne dobe narust o vic nez 100% za 12 mesicu) - lze predpokladat, ze teno narust hodne souvisi s adopci bitcoinu. A podle me plati cim vic uzivatelu -> tim vetsi hodnota celeho BTC systemu.<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[Orbital]

No, do jisty miry snad plati, ze narust transakci je i narust poctu uzivatelu. Ale taky to muze byt narust poctu btc startupu, ktery si preposilaji penize. Nebo to muze byt narust poctu transakci v ramci vlastnictvi jedny identity, v ramci zvyseni zabezpeceni od hot do cold wallets atd. Delaji se zatezovy testy treba a to s poctem realnych transakci moc nesouvisi.

Pro bitcoin je mnohem dulezitejsi pro nejaky brutalni narust bt, aby lidi co maji prachy ve velkym mnozstvi, ho brali vazne. A jeste lepsi by byly instituce. BFU se pripoji pak. Je fakt, ze btc vyrostl zezdola, ale ted se podle me to teziste musi presunout. Chapu, ze je tezky pochopit, co je to rezervni mena. Rozdil mezi rezervni a normalni menou je mj. i v tom, ze k ni nemusi a dokonce casto ani nemuze mit pristup normalni smrtelnik. Presto existuje - smrtelnik nesmrtelnik. Viz SDR: https://cs.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zvl%C3...p%C3%A1n%C3%AD

Jako ten narust zezdola urcite muze pomoct, ale chtelo by to pro jeho potvrzeni urcite neco jinyho nez graf poctu transakci. Napr: k cemu ma dnes normalni clovek btc? Kde je jedina trzni vyhoda btc? Drogy a gamble v nekterych statech. Ten gamble roste, ale neni to zadna hitparada. Ty drogy...to by byl zajimavej pruzkum no. Klidne se muzu v zohledneni predchozich bodu uplne mylit a celej bitcoin jede z 99% na drogach. Casem se to uvidi.

Ale pokud jde o tu adopci zdola, tak urcite plati ne ten rovnostarsky pristup "cim vic uzivatelu -> tim vetsi hodnota celeho BTC systemu", ale cim vic bohatych uzivatelu, co do toho nalijou signifikantni prachy -> tim vetsi hodnota toho systemu. Proste kdyz nekdo rozda miliarde lidi .00001 Btc, tak se nestane nic. Takovy ultralevicacky ideje tu taky litaj.<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[Orbital]

tohle je strizlivej nazor na to co se stane s btc Putin Advisor: Accepting Bitcoin Payments in Russia is a Crime - CoinDesk
ale i pres to vsechno ma smysl

Minimalne

Because no state in the world, while watching it in homeopathic doses with pleasure, but when it becomes critical, everyone will certainly ban it

Az se dostane nekdy bitcoin ke kriticky hranici, tak jeho cena bude o rady jinde.

Pak samozrejme prijdou represe a sileny swingy nahoru dolu, ale to je cely budoucnost.<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[Orbital]

Now You Can Trade Bitcoin Tracker One with Interactive Brokers | Finance Magnates
tohle je takovej zajimavej instrument, kterej je navazanej na cenu btc, ale zaroven je to neco, co je jakoby legalizovany, tj. kdyz do toho nalejete love a pak treba nechat vyplatit tak by se banky nemusely posrat...

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[Orbital]

Ted nad ranem me napadlo, co presne se mi na btc libi a proc by fakt nemel chybet nikomu kdo ma nejaky bank.

Bitcoin je totiz neco jako druha noha arbu. Sazka na btc pokryva to, co vam nepokryje zadny jiny aktivum.

Jednak je to - a na tom trvam, i kdyz moc lidi to tak nevidi - doomsday defenzivni investice, ktera hedzuje hyperinflaci, rozpad statu atd. Ve chvili, kdy masy prestanou verit tem pohadkam, co jsou jim predkladany a ktery zatim zahadne funguji, se proste lidska mysl bude chtit upnout k necemu jinemu a duveryhodnemu. A na sklade toho moc neni.

No a zaroven je to taky dobra investice pro pripad, ze teda ti technologicti optimisti budou mit nejak zahadne pravdu (anebo budou mit pravdu cybermafiani, kteri ruku v ruce s protidrogovou politikou, EET & comp. a politikou omezujici prani spinavych penez proste v nasi zarive prozacove ekonomicke budoucnosti, pomohou implementovat do kryptomen trilionovou ekonomiku fetu, kurev a danovych uniku, bez ktery se nas zarivy kapitalismus samozrejme neobejde).

Samozrejme pokud jsme nekde mezi (patrne jiz vyvracenym Fukuyamskym koncem dejin a kontinualnim muddling through) tak bitcoin neni nic moc. Jenze prave ten steady state mi prijde jako velmi nepravdepodobna varianta i pro muj vlastni lifespan a navic ji mam pokrytou lehce deflacnim cashem.

Takze receno po sazkarsku: bitcoin je proste nutnost nikoliv jen z hlediska ohromny value, ale i z pohledu moneymanagementu. A jak asi uznate, takova souhra, kdy value a MM jdou stejnym smerem, se nedeje casto, protoze temer vzdy byva mezi MM a value tradeoff.<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[treider]

Dnes jsem videl v obchodnim centru na Pankraci bankomat na Bitcoiny.
Je mozne koupit nebo prodat.
Kurz byl 9900 Kc za jeden.<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[valentyne]

je i v Brne ve Vankovce, nahore kdyz se jde ke garazim...<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[Orbital]

Bass wrote that he expected the massive losses to force Beijing to recapitalize Chinese banks and sharply devalue the yuan."China will likely have to print in excess of $10 trillion worth of yuan to recapitalize its banking system," he said.

Kyle Bass: China banks may lose 5 times US banks' subprime losses in credit crisis<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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[Alx]

Thaler: Zrušme hotovost, poctivci se nemají čeho bát - Roklen24.cz

pro BTC idealni prostredi...<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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