pocitane kurzy

Jak uz jsem nadhodil v tematu o literature, tak se pokusim o nasledujici... Predne rikam, ze se pokusim... nejde o zadny zaruceny, vyzkouseny postup jak generovat penize... nicmene vyzkouset je treba vsechno...

Poenta: Na zaklade jednoduchych zakladnich statistik, jako jsou na liga.cz ci covers.com se pokusim podle statistickeho algoritmu spocitat vlastni kurzy a ty konfrontovat z aktualni nabidkou velkeho kanclu - vybral jsem preferovany pinnacle...

Pro jednodussi vypocet jsem vybral under/over2.5 na velke evropske ligy...<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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srpen:

1) Lokomotiv Moskva - Kuban, pick: over 2.5, estimate: 1.8, odds: 2.12
2) Swansea - Watford, pick: over 2.5, estimate: 1.98, odds: 2.11
3) Barnsley - Reading, pick: under 2.5, estimate: 1.59, odds: 1.73 (drop z 1.81)<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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pro zajimavost vsechny spocte kurzy v poradi nazev domacich, hostu, pravdepodobnost overu, kurz over, kurz under

http://yres.cz/sazkar/s1.JPG<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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srpen:

1) Lokomotiv Moskva - Kuban, pick: over 2.5, estimate: 1.8, odds: 2.12
2) Swansea - Watford, pick: over 2.5, estimate: 1.98, odds: 2.11
3) Barnsley - Reading, pick: under 2.5, estimate: 1.59, odds: 1.73 (drop z 1.81)

4) Flamengo - Santo Andre, pick: over 2.5, estimate: 1.65, odds: 1.806
5) Coritiba - Avai, pick: over 2.5, estimate: 1.76: odds: 1.909
6) Nautico - Atletico PR, pick: under 2.5, estimate: 1.79, odds: 1.943<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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Zdravim, predne nemyslim to nikterak zle, ale zvedavost mi neda, abych se nezeptal. Neangazoval si s necim podobnym take na Profisazkari jako uzivatel Yardus(pripadne Devron) a nebo na strankach YresInvest? Diky.<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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No system jsem sice pochopil ,ale ma to nekolik kazu na krase ... predne nektere propocty kurzu u predpokladane hladiny kurzu nejsou vubec presne a druhym a podle mne zasadnejsim problemem je fakt ,ze nemuzes porovnavat vsechny souteze rovnocene co se tyka poctu vstrelenych branek ,neboli kazdy jednoduchy vysledny kurz v soutezi je jeste nutno korigovat podle koeficientu dane ligy co se vstrelenych golu tyce ...
Zkusim to dle tve matematiky trochu sledovat i kdyz neverim ze by toto mela byt cesta k jiste vyhre :wink:<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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2schmidt:
gugatronic=Devron=!=Yardus

web yres.cz je muj, ale kvuli pozici v tipace uz jsem nemel tolik casu se tomu venovat jak jsem chtel puvodne

jinak Yarduse znam, jeho vypocty jsou ted na jine bazi nez moje... jeho aktivita na PS je naprosto nezavisla ode me... ja tohle na PS nedaval... par let zpet jsem zkousel baseball, ale to mi moc neslo...

2tron:
ad "predne nektere propocty kurzu u predpokladane hladiny kurzu nejsou vubec presne"
pointa tohoto pristupu je prave spocitat neco jineho nez ma trh a pokusit se to mit spravne... takze oznacit ze je neco spatne je vlastne popreni tohoto pristupu, coz je vec nazoru :) a moje snaha bude se pokuset se ukazat ze to je dobre :)
ad druha namitka... ja sem dal sceenshot vystupu... samozrejme program vi, ze v norske lize pada vic golu nez ve francii... tohle v sobe implicitne zohlednene ma...

jen jsem ted nasel nejakou chybu v programu... takze eine momente please :)<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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Cau, zase tu na nas vyblaflo 6 desetinejch mist, coz vypada asi odborne...ale zas `tak` presne to mit nemusime;-)

S cim souhlasim, a to na 100% je, ze tyhle nase akce se musej soustredit na `jednoduchy` trhy... under/ovar, suda/licha...a az se budeme nudit, tak muzeme prejit k necemu slozitejsimu.

Pristupu jak spocitat kurz je jiste nescetne, akorat kazdej pohled dovoli tomu vysledku `zapadnout` v jinej moment. Tak jak se rika, ze jedna strategie cehokoliv na neco neexistuje, tak zacinam mit pocit, ze kazda nastala situace vyzaduje jinou strategii tvorbu kurzu, ci urceni pravdepodobnosti...nebot jinak se na konci vzdycky sejdeme prave na konci toho jednoho celku. Neprimerena diversifikace rizika, portfolia - nachylka k prumeru - trh sam o sobe.

Ruzne prostredi, ruznej pohled...jina minulost/jina budoucnost. Jinak nez pres filtr predchazejicich opakujicich se podminek, to myslim nepujde. Takove fakta co nejdou na prvni pohled hned videt. Prijde mi, ze book...a to jak to vidi masa, je beh na dlouhou trat, kurzy se srovnaj v urcitem objemu. Bez prava vyberu dokaze sazet asi jen `BUH`...a do toho bychom se mu srat nemeli.

Shrneme-li to, 2 ok, 4 picou ke zdi...ano, bla bla...muzeme soudit po vicero opakovani...ale jestli je to `rozbity`, tak to klidne nech...budeme davat `doproti`.

Jestli tu je nekdo ochotnej dat neco vyvoji, tak tu zalozme nejakou betting laboratory ci co a pojdme pracovat. Nejaka fakta jsou dana, jine si najdeme, jakekoliv podmetne otazky vitany! ;-)

Takze under/ovar, suda/licha...nejakej jinej market vas napada?<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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v teto legraci budu pokracovat nove na blogu..<div style="font-size: xx-small;color: #0000ff;display: inline-block;text-align: center;width: 100%;">
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